The Movie Guys – 2026 Oscar Predictions

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By Eddie on 04/03/2026

As we draw ever closer to Hollywood’s night of nights, it’s only right that every man and his dog predicts who will walk away victorious with one (or multiple) golden statues in hand.

The 2026 Oscars are more than almost any year in recent memory a real two picture show with critical darling One Battle After Another and popular favourite Sinners the two films to beat in almost all of the major categories, nominated 13 times and 16 times overall respectively.

As film fans it’s great knowing that these two big picture swings are the kings of the 2026 crop and while it would’ve been nice to see Train Dreams get some greater recognition and the criminally underrated Warfare get some love (at the very minimum for sound and editing), in the broad scheme of things there’s not too much to complain about this go around with the Academy voters getting it right for the most part.

Below is the list of key awards contenders and my personal picks in represented in bold with those with an *the outside chance to walk away a winner in the respective field.

Happy reading and see you at the movies!

Best Picture

One Battle After Another is the film to beat in most major categories

Bugonia

F1

Frankenstein

Hamnet

Marty Supreme

One Battle after Another

The Secret Agent

Sentimental Value

Sinners*

Train Dreams

Best Actor

Timothée Chalamet’s performance in Marty Supreme is hard to deny

Timothée Chalamet – Marty Supreme

Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle after Another)

Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon)

Michael B. Jordan (Sinners)*

Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent)

Best Actress

One of the biggest sure bet wins in Oscar history is Jessie Buckley winning Best Actress

Jessie Buckley (Hamnet)

Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You)*

Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue)

Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value)

Emma Stone (Bugonia)

Best Supporting Actor

While it would be nice to see Frankenstein star Jacob Elordi win here, this is very much a battle between OBAA co-stars

Benicio Del Toro (One Battle After Another)

Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein)

Delroy Lindo (Sinners)

Sean Penn (One Battle after Another)*

Stellan Skarsgård (Sentimental Value)

Best Supporting Actress

In a perfect world Amy Madigan would be winning for her scene-stealing turn in Weapons

Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value)

Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas (Sentimental Value)

Amy Madigan (Weapons)*

Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners)

Teyana Taylor (One Battle after Another)

Best Director

After a few misses across his career, here’s hoping Paul Thomas Anderson reigns supreme

Marty Supreme (Josh Safdie)

One Battle after Another (Paul Thomas Anderson)

Sentimental Value (Joachim Trier)

Sinners (Ryan Coogler)*

Hamnet (Chloe Zhao)

Best Adapted Screenplay

Bugonia is merely making up the numbers in this strong field

Bugonia – Screenplay by Will Tracy

Frankenstein – Written for the Screen by Guillermo del Toro

Hamnet – Screenplay by Chloé Zhao & Maggie O’Farrell

One Battle after Another – Written by Paul Thomas Anderson

Train Dreams – Screenplay by Clint Bentley & Greg Kwedar*

Best Original Screenplay

Sinners would be a worthy winner for its unique take on a familiar story

Blue Moon – Written by Robert Kaplow

It Was Just an Accident – Written by Jafar Panahi; Script collaborators – Nader Saïvar, Shadmehr Rastin, Mehdi Mahmoudian

Marty Supreme – Written by Ronald Bronstein & Josh Safdie*

Sentimental Value – Written by Eskil Vogt, Joachim Trier

Sinners – Written by Ryan Coogler

Best International Feature

In a strong field of candidates, Sentimental Value is a favourite

Brazil – The Secret Agent*

France – It Was Just an Accident

Norway – Sentimental Value

Spain – Sirāt

Tunisia – The Voice of Hind Rajab

Best Animated Film

Still unsure how Elio managed to sneak its way into this race

Arco

Elio

KPop Demon Hunters

Little Amélie or the Character of Rain

Zootopia 2*

Best Documentary

The Netflix released Perfect Neighbour was one of the years most talked-about films

The Alabama Solution

Come See Me in the Good Light

Cutting through Rocks

Mr. Nobody against Putin*

The Perfect Neighbour

Best Casting

The Secret Agent got a lot of plaudits for its ensemble work

Hamnet

Marty Supreme

One Battle after Another*

The Secret Agent

Sinners

Technical Categories

Best Film Editing

F1 is a genuine dark horse in this category

F1*

Marty Supreme

One Battle after Another

Sentimental Value

Sinners

Best Cinematography

One of the most beautiful films in years, Train Dreams would be a worthy recipient here.

Frankenstein – Dan Laustsen

Marty Supreme – Darius Khondji

One Battle after Another – Michael Bauman*

Sinners – Autumn Durald Arkapaw

Train Dreams – Adolpho Veloso

Best Production Design

Hamnet may not have been flashy, but it certainly nailed the time and place in which it was set

Frankenstein*

Hamnet

Marty Supreme

One Battle after Another

Sinners

Best Costume Design

Sinners was full of period swagger but it will have its work cut out to beat Frankenstein

Avatar: Fire and Ash

Frankenstein

Hamnet

Marty Supreme

Sinners*

Best Original Score

Johnny Greenwood’s intense score was something else but faces an uphill battle in a loaded field

Bugonia – Jerskin Fendrix

Frankenstein – Alexandre Desplat

Hamnet – Max Richter

One Battle after Another – Jonny Greenwood*

Sinners – Ludwig Goransson

Best Original Song

Train Dreams wonderful collaboration with Australian singer Nick Cave won’t be enough to beat out some beloved K-Pop

Dear Me – from Diane Warren: Relentless; Music and Lyric by Diane Warren

Golden – from KPop Demon Hunters; Music and Lyric by EJAE, Mark Sonnenblick, Joong Gyu Kwak, Yu Han Lee, Hee Dong Nam, Jeong Hoon Seo and Teddy Park

I Lied To You – from Sinners; Music and Lyric by Raphael Saadiq and Ludwig Goransson

Sweet Dreams Of Joy – from Viva Verdi!; Music and Lyric by Nicholas Pike

Train Dreams – from Train Dreams; Music by Nick Cave and Bryce Dessner; Lyric by Nick Cave*

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

The Smashing Machine was the awards chaser that never was

Kokuho

Sinners*

The Smashing Machine

The Ugly Stepsister

Frankenstein

Best Sound

F1’s sound design was the films secret weapon

F1

Frankenstein

One Battle after Another*

Sinners

Sirāt

Best Visual Effects

Avatar continues to impress when it comes to technical advancements

Avatar: Fire and Ash

F1*

Jurassic World Rebirth

The Lost Bus

Sinners

Wins Leaderboard

1. One Battle After Another = 6

2. Sinners = 5

3. Frankenstein = 2

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