By Jordan and Eddie on 02/03/2018
In what’s likely to be an awards night dominated by political grandstanding and statement making, this year’s Oscar ceremony looks set to be one of the most unpredictable in years.
The Shape of Water leads all comers with an equal record haul of 13 nominations, but surely many voters will have woken up to themselves concerning a film that is fine in many ways but far from great, leaving the door open to the possibility of upset wins in both the Best Picture and Best Director race.
Many newcomers are a part of this year’s awards also which makes for a nice change, even if it would’ve been a breath of fresh air to see Meryl Streep finally left out of the night’s nominations.
Below are The Movie Guys’ personal predications for the awards and a general overview of our thoughts on this year’s Oscar’s overall.
We hope you enjoy the piece and as always; happy reading and happy watching!
Jordan’s Overview
Most Happy About:
A year in which the names Nolan, Del Toro and Paul Thomas Anderson are all listed in the Best Director category deserves a moment of reflection. Each are genuine auteurs and would have absolute respect for each other, especially considering their contrasting styles and themes.
Special mentions for seeing Daniel Day Lewis’ swansong performance regarded so highly, though it’s unlikely he’ll win, and Sam Rockwell leading the charge most deservingly for his incendiary turn in 3 Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri.
Most Unhappy About:
The Best Animated Feature Film nominees. I mean, at the risk of sounding unprofessional, how many animated films did the Academy members actually watch? and under what conditions? Boss Baby? In a year in which In This Corner of the World and Mary and the Witch’s Flower are released? Fair dinkum.
Also, James Franco will rue the day his name got mentioned in the Hollywood gender storm, with his baby The Disaster Artist snubbed in Picture and Performance fields, despite its pitch-perfect insight and humour.
Biggest Surprise:
You can’t overstate the significance of Jordan Peele’s Get Out featuring alongside films such as Dunkirk and Phantom Thread. I wonder what the Panel’s deciding factor was? If it was in fact the combination of horror, comedy and social commentary, there are many genre films that have done it better and received their praise instead through the modern fanzine that is the horror-verse and word-of-mouth.
With its universal acclaim upon release and many touting its (totally unqualified and ill considered) Oscar credentials, it’s also equally surprising seeing Wonder Woman missing.
Biggest Snub:
I’ll bite my tongue on all films I’ve mentioned previously, and instead mention The Killing of a Sacred Deer, which could easily of slotted into the best list.
(but seriously, In This Corner of the World).
Lucky to be There:
I think someone made a mistake and accidently re-nominated Octavia Spencer for her performance in The Help, and were too embarrassed to say anything when the nominees were released and The Shape of Water was listed next to her name.
Ah well, at least Meryl Streep isn’t nominated again…oh wait.
Eddie’s Overview
Most Happy About:
Dunkirk’s haul of nominations sits well. Nolan’s war-set thriller was a brilliant piece of filmmaking and deserves to be amongst the contenders at this year’s ceremony and its fantastic to see Nolan finally get an overdue nomination for himself personally.
It’s also great to see the Academy nominate both Woody Harrelson and Sam Rockwell for their respective turns in Three Billboards as some were worried the two actor’s great turns wouldn’t both be recognized.
Here’s hoping also that with Roger Deakin’s being nominated for his DOP work on Blade Runner 2049, the legendary film icon might finally take home an award he should’ve won many times previously.
Most Unhappy About:
The Shape of Water overkill feels like an Academy going too far with a film that’s fine without being great. 13 nominations is far too many.
While also a decent film and a thriller with a difference, Get Out is nowhere near Best Film material while debut director Jordan Peele must still be wondering how on earth he finds himself a part of a best director field that includes masters like Nolan and Paul Thomas Anderson.
Biggest Surprise:
Denzel Washington sneaking into the Best Actor field seemingly came out of nowhere, especially for a film that wasn’t at all well-received.
Phantom Thread getting 6 nominations also took me by surprise, as the film felt like an afterthought of awards season, not a film likely to get some of the night’s key nominations and goes to show everyone that films don’t need a haul of nominations at other awards nights to be a big player at the Oscar’s.
Biggest Snub:
Wind River not getting a single nomination seems harsh and it’s likely that Harvey Weinstein’s involvement in the film played a part in this.
Steven Spielberg not getting a nomination for his work on The Post is also somewhat surprising, with the master instead overlooked for newcomers Jordan Peele and Greta Gerwig despite The Post getting a Best Picture nomination.
Lucky to be There:
Octavia Spencer getting a Best Supporting Actress nomination for her turn in The Shape of Water is a real case of the Academy member’s going overboard with their lavish praise of the monster film.
Spencer isn’t bad in the film but her turn is so generic you do wonder why many feel its awards worthy, it’s more likely the Academy is making sure they tick off the box in regards to making sure each category is diverse and politically correct.
As mentioned on this site previously, Boss Baby being considered one of last year’s best animated film’s is laughable at best.
NOMINEES and PREDICTIONS
Best Picture
The Shape of Water has become a frontrunner in the Best Picture race
Call Me by Your Name
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Predictions:
Jordan – Winner: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri Dark Horse: Dunkirk
Eddie – Winner: The Shape of Water Dark Horse: Dunkirk
Best Director
With his first nomination, Christopher Nolan has a chance to claim an upset award
Dunkirk – Christopher Nolan
Get Out – Jordan Peele
Lady Bird – Greta Gerwig
Phantom Thread – Paul Thomas Anderson
The Shape of Water – Guillermo del Toro
Predictions:
Jordan – Winner: Guillermo Del Toro (The Shape of Water) Dark Horse: Christopher Nolan (Dunkirk)
Eddie – Winner: Christopher Nolan (Dunkirk) Dark Horse: Guillermo Del Toro (The Shape of Water)
Best Actor
There’s no way Gary Oldman is losing out in the Best Actor race
Timothée Chalamet – Call Me by Your Name
Daniel Day-Lewis – Phantom Thread
Daniel Kaluuya – Get Out
Gary Oldman – Darkest Hour
Denzel Washington – Roman J. Israel, Esq.
Predictions:
Jordan – Winner: Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour) Dark Horse: Daniel Day Lewis (Phantom Thread)
Eddie – Winner: Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour) Dark Horse: Daniel Day Lewis (Phantom Thread)
Best Actress
Having won before, Francis McDormand should get another golden statue this year
Sally Hawkins – The Shape of Water
Frances McDormand – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Margot Robbie – I, Tonya
Saoirse Ronan – Lady Bird
Meryl Streep – The Post
Predictions:
Jordan – Winner: Frances McDormand (Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri) Dark Horse: Sally Hawkins (The Shape of Water)
Eddie – Winner: Frances McDormand (Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri) Dark Horse: Saoirse Ronan (Lady Bird)
Best Supporting Actor
Willem Dafoe was great in The Florida Project and has a chance to win this category
Willem Dafoe – The Florida Project
Woody Harrelson – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Richard Jenkins – The Shape of Water
Christopher Plummer – All the Money in the World
Sam Rockwell – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Predictions:
Jordan – Winner: Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri) Dark Horse: Woody Harrelson (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
Eddie – Winner: Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri) Dark Horse: Willem Dafoe (The Florida Project)
Best Supporting Actress
Alison Janney almost stole the show in I, Tonya
Mary J. Blige – Mudbound
Allison Janney – I, Tonya
Lesley Manville – Phantom Thread
Laurie Metcalf – Lady Bird
Octavia Spencer – The Shape of Water
Predictions:
Jordan – Winner: Lesley Manville (Phantom Thread) Dark Horse: Laurie Metcalf (Lady Bird)
Eddie – Winner: Alison Janney (I, Tonya) Dark Horse: Laurie Metcalf (Lady Bird)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Mudbound’s reputation could see it win this category
Call Me by Your Name – James Ivory
The Disaster Artist – Scott Neustadter & Michael H. Weber
Logan – Scott Frank & James Mangold and Michael Green
Molly’s Game – Aaron Sorkin
Mudbound – Virgil Williams and Dee Rees
Predictions:
Jordan – Winner: The Disaster Artist (Scott Neustadter & Michael H. Weber) Dark Horse: James Ivory (Call Me By Your Name)
Eddie – Winner: James Ivory (Call Me By Your Name) Dark Horse: Virgil Williams and Dee Ress (Mudbound)
Best Original Screenplay
The Academy will look to give Get Out an award on the night, can it beat out Lady Bird?
The Big Sick – Emily V. Gordon & Kumail Nanjiani
Get Out – Jordan Peele
Lady Bird – Greta Gerwig
The Shape of Water – Guillermo del Toro & Vanessa Taylor
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri – Martin McDonagh
Predictions:
Jordan – Winner: The Shape of Water (Guillermo del Toro & Vanessa Taylor) Dark Horse: Jordan Peele (Get Out)
Eddie – Winner: Greta Gerwig (Lady Bird) Dark Horse: Jordan Peele (Get Out)
Best Animated Film
Coco is a new Pixar masterpiece and a sure-fire winner on the night of the Oscars
The Boss Baby
The Breadwinner
Coco
Ferdinand
Loving Vincent
Predictions:
Jordan – Winner: Coco Dark Horse: Loving Vincent
Eddie – Winner: Coco Dark Horse: Loving Vincent
Other Categories
Best Cinematography
Blade Runner 2049 – Roger Deakins
Darkest Hour – Bruno Delbonnel
Dunkirk – Hoyte van Hoytema
Mudbound – Rachel Morrison
The Shape of Water – Dan Laustsen
Predictions:
Jordan – Winner: Dunkirk (Hoyte van Hoytema) Dark Horse: Roger Deakins (Blade Runner)
Eddie – Winner: Roger Deakins (Blade Runner 2049) Dark Horse: Dan Laustsen (The Shape of Water)
Best Documentary
Abacus: Small Enough to Jail
Faces Places
Last Men in Aleppo
Strong Island
Predictions:
Jordan – Winner: Last Men in Aleppo Dark Horse: Strong Island
Eddie – Winner: Last Men in Aleppo Dark Horse: Icarus
Best Foreign Language Film
A Fantastic Woman
The Insult
Loveless
On Body and Soul
The Square
Predictions:
Jordan – Winner: The Square Dark Horse: Loveless
Eddie – Winner: The Square Dark Horse: A Fantastic Woman
Best Editing
Dunkirk
I, Tonya
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Predictions:
Jordan – Winner: Dunkirk Dark Horse: The Shape of Water
Eddie – Winner: Dunkirk Dark Horse: Baby Driver
Best Sound Editing
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Predictions:
Jordan – Winner: Dunkirk Dark Horse: Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Eddie – Winner: Dunkirk Dark Horse: Blade Runner 2049
Best Sound Mixing
Baby Driver
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Predictions:
Jordan – Winner: Dunkirk Dark Horse: Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Eddie – Winner: Dunkirk Dark Horse: Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Best Production Design
Blade Runner 2049
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Predictions:
Jordan – Winner: The Shape of Water Dark Horse: Dunkirk
Eddie – Winner: The Shape of Water Dark Horse: Blade Runner 2049
Best Original Score
Dunkirk – Hans Zimmer
Phantom Thread – Jonny Greenwood
The Shape of Water – Alexandre Desplat
Star Wars: The Last Jedi – John Williams
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri – Carter Burwell
Predictions:
Jordan – Winner: (Phantom Thread Jonny Greenwood) Dark Horse: Alexandre Desplat (The Shape of Water)
Eddie – Winner: Alexandre Desplat (The Shape of Water) Dark Horse: Hans Zimmer (Dunkirk)
Best Original Song
Mighty River – “Mudbound” Mary J. Blige
Mystery of Love – “Call Me by Your Name” Sufjan Stevens
Remember Me – “Coco”
Stand Up for Something – “Marshall” Diane Warren, Common
“This Is Me” – The Greatest Showman” Benj Pasek, Justin Paul
Predictions:
Jordan – Winner: Remember Me (Coco) Dark Horse: Mystery of Love (Call Me by Your Name)
Eddie – Winner: This Is Me (The Greatest Showman) Dark Horse: Mystery of Love (Call Me by Your Name)
Best Make-up and Hair
Darkest Hour
Victoria and Abdul
Predictions:
Jordan – Winner: The Darkest Hour Dark Horse: Victoria and Abdul
Eddie – Winner: Darkest Hour Dark Horse: Wonder
Best Costume Design
Darkest Hour
Phantom Thread
The Shape of Water
Victoria and Abdul
Predictions:
Jordan – Winner: Phantom Thread Dark Horse: Darkest Hour
Eddie – Winner: Phantom Thread Dark Horse: The Shape of Water
Best Visual Effects
Blade Runner 2049
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
War for the Planet of the Apes
Predictions:
Jordan – Winner: Star Wars: The last Jedi Dark Horse: Kong: Skull Island
Eddie – Winner: War for the Planet of the Apes Dark Horse: Blade Runner 2049
Best Animated Short Film
Dear Basketball
Garden Party
Lou
Negative Space
Revolting Rhymes
Predictions:
Jordan – Winner: Negative Space Dark Horse: Lou
Eddie – Winner: Dear Basketball Dark Horse: Negative Space
Best Documentary Short Subject
Edith+Eddie
Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405
Heroin(e)
Knife Skills
Traffic Stop
Predictions:
Jordan – Winner: Heroin(e) Dark Horse: Knife Skills
Eddie – Winner: Edith+Eddie Dark Horse: Knife Skills
Best Live Action Short
DeKalb Elementary
The Eleven O’Clock
My Nephew Emmett
The Silent Child
Watu Wote/All of Us
Predictions:
Jordan – Winner: Watu Wote/All of Us Dark Horse: The Eleven O’Clock
Eddie – Winner: The Eleven O’Clock Dark Horse: The Silent Child
Wins Tally
Who do you think will sweep the Oscars this year? Is there a film that should/shouldn’t be here? We’d love to hear from you so leave us a comment below!
Spot on with Wind River. An unfortunate casualty of the Weinstein scandal, Taylor Sheridan should probably be nominated for Best Original Screenplay at the least. Very Strong acting performances at the head of film, great original score, strong cinematography. Absolutely one of the best films of the year, sad to see it on the sidelines.
Very valid point Nicolas, I think the Weinstein saga really killed any chances it had. I was surprised the score was ignored, can’t wait for Sheridan’s new TV show Yellowstone, looks ace.
E
Wind River deserved something.
What I don’t want though is Dunkirk winning. I really thought that movie would be phenomenal but to me it was a ‘meh’ movie. I kind of feel like I wasted my time watching that movie.
But hey, Oscars aren’t everything and there is bound to be snubs and disappointments here
Yeh always is good times and bad times at the Oscars mate, my hope is that Shape of Water doesn’t win to many awards, its a very overrated film, it looks likely that there will be a neat spread though between Dunkirk, Billboards and Shape.
E