The Movie Guys – 2018 Oscars Overview & Final Predictions

By Jordan and Eddie on 02/03/2018

In what’s likely to be an awards night dominated by political grandstanding and statement making, this year’s Oscar ceremony looks set to be one of the most unpredictable in years.

The Shape of Water leads all comers with an equal record haul of 13 nominations, but surely many voters will have woken up to themselves concerning a film that is fine in many ways but far from great, leaving the door open to the possibility of upset wins in both the Best Picture and Best Director race.

Many newcomers are a part of this year’s awards also which makes for a nice change, even if it would’ve been a breath of fresh air to see Meryl Streep finally left out of the night’s nominations.

Below are The Movie Guys’ personal predications for the awards and a general overview of our thoughts on this year’s Oscar’s overall.

We hope you enjoy the piece and as always; happy reading and happy watching!

Jordan’s Overview

Most Happy About:

A year in which the names Nolan, Del Toro and Paul Thomas Anderson are all listed in the Best Director category deserves a moment of reflection. Each are genuine auteurs and would have absolute respect for each other, especially considering their contrasting styles and themes.

Special mentions for seeing Daniel Day Lewis’ swansong performance regarded so highly, though it’s unlikely he’ll win, and Sam Rockwell leading the charge most deservingly for his incendiary turn in 3 Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri.

Most Unhappy About:

The Best Animated Feature Film nominees. I mean, at the risk of sounding unprofessional, how many animated films did the Academy members actually watch? and under what conditions? Boss Baby? In a year in which In This Corner of the World and Mary and the Witch’s Flower are released? Fair dinkum.

Also, James Franco will rue the day his name got mentioned in the Hollywood gender storm, with his baby The Disaster Artist snubbed in Picture and Performance fields, despite its pitch-perfect insight and humour.

Biggest Surprise:

You can’t overstate the significance of Jordan Peele’s Get Out featuring alongside films such as Dunkirk and Phantom Thread. I wonder what the Panel’s deciding factor was? If it was in fact the combination of horror, comedy and social commentary, there are many genre films that have done it better and received their praise instead through the modern fanzine that is the horror-verse and word-of-mouth.

With its universal acclaim upon release and many touting its (totally unqualified and ill considered) Oscar credentials, it’s also equally surprising seeing Wonder Woman missing.

Biggest Snub:

I’ll bite my tongue on all films I’ve mentioned previously, and instead mention The Killing of a Sacred Deer, which could easily of slotted into the best list.

(but seriously, In This Corner of the World).

Lucky to be There:

I think someone made a mistake and accidently re-nominated Octavia Spencer for her performance in The Help, and were too embarrassed to say anything when the nominees were released and The Shape of Water was listed next to her name.

Ah well, at least Meryl Streep isn’t nominated again…oh wait.

Eddie’s Overview

Most Happy About:

Dunkirk’s haul of nominations sits well. Nolan’s war-set thriller was a brilliant piece of filmmaking and deserves to be amongst the contenders at this year’s ceremony and its fantastic to see Nolan finally get an overdue nomination for himself personally.

It’s also great to see the Academy nominate both Woody Harrelson and Sam Rockwell for their respective turns in Three Billboards as some were worried the two actor’s great turns wouldn’t both be recognized.

Here’s hoping also that with Roger Deakin’s being nominated for his DOP work on Blade Runner 2049, the legendary film icon might finally take home an award he should’ve won many times previously.

Most Unhappy About:

The Shape of Water overkill feels like an Academy going too far with a film that’s fine without being great. 13 nominations is far too many.

While also a decent film and a thriller with a difference, Get Out is nowhere near Best Film material while debut director Jordan Peele must still be wondering how on earth he finds himself a part of a best director field that includes masters like Nolan and Paul Thomas Anderson.

Biggest Surprise:

Denzel Washington sneaking into the Best Actor field seemingly came out of nowhere, especially for a film that wasn’t at all well-received.

Phantom Thread getting 6 nominations also took me by surprise, as the film felt like an afterthought of awards season, not a film likely to get some of the night’s key nominations and goes to show everyone that films don’t need a haul of nominations at other awards nights to be a big player at the Oscar’s.

Biggest Snub:

Wind River not getting a single nomination seems harsh and it’s likely that Harvey Weinstein’s involvement in the film played a part in this.

Steven Spielberg not getting a nomination for his work on The Post is also somewhat surprising, with the master instead overlooked for newcomers Jordan Peele and Greta Gerwig despite The Post getting a Best Picture nomination.

Lucky to be There:

Octavia Spencer getting a Best Supporting Actress nomination for her turn in The Shape of Water is a real case of the Academy member’s going overboard with their lavish praise of the monster film.

Spencer isn’t bad in the film but her turn is so generic you do wonder why many feel its awards worthy, it’s more likely the Academy is making sure they tick off the box in regards to making sure each category is diverse and politically correct.

As mentioned on this site previously, Boss Baby being considered one of last year’s best animated film’s is laughable at best.

NOMINEES and PREDICTIONS

Best Picture

The Shape of Water has become a frontrunner in the Best Picture race

Call Me by Your Name

Darkest Hour

Dunkirk

Get Out

Lady Bird

Phantom Thread

The Post

The Shape of Water

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Predictions:

Jordan – Winner: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri   Dark Horse: Dunkirk

Eddie – Winner: The Shape of Water   Dark Horse: Dunkirk

Best Director

With his first nomination, Christopher Nolan has a chance to claim an upset award

Dunkirk – Christopher Nolan

Get Out – Jordan Peele

Lady Bird – Greta Gerwig

Phantom Thread – Paul Thomas Anderson

The Shape of Water – Guillermo del Toro

Predictions:

Jordan – Winner: Guillermo Del Toro (The Shape of Water)   Dark Horse: Christopher Nolan (Dunkirk)

Eddie – Winner: Christopher Nolan (Dunkirk)   Dark Horse: Guillermo Del Toro (The Shape of Water)

Best Actor

There’s no way Gary Oldman is losing out in the Best Actor race

Timothée Chalamet – Call Me by Your Name

Daniel Day-Lewis – Phantom Thread

Daniel Kaluuya – Get Out

Gary Oldman – Darkest Hour

Denzel Washington – Roman J. Israel, Esq.

Predictions:

Jordan – Winner: Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour)  Dark Horse: Daniel Day Lewis (Phantom Thread)

Eddie – Winner: Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour)   Dark Horse: Daniel Day Lewis (Phantom Thread)

Best Actress

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Having won before, Francis McDormand should get another golden statue this year

Sally Hawkins – The Shape of Water

Frances McDormand – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Margot Robbie – I, Tonya

Saoirse Ronan – Lady Bird

Meryl Streep – The Post

Predictions:

Jordan – Winner: Frances McDormand (Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri)   Dark Horse: Sally Hawkins (The Shape of Water)

Eddie – Winner: Frances McDormand (Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri)   Dark Horse: Saoirse Ronan (Lady Bird)

Best Supporting Actor

Willem Dafoe was great in The Florida Project and has a chance to win this category

Willem Dafoe – The Florida Project

Woody Harrelson – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Richard Jenkins – The Shape of Water

Christopher Plummer – All the Money in the World

Sam Rockwell – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Predictions:

Jordan – Winner: Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri)  Dark Horse: Woody Harrelson (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)

Eddie – Winner: Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri)   Dark Horse: Willem Dafoe (The Florida Project)

Best Supporting Actress

Alison Janney almost stole the show in I, Tonya

Mary J. Blige – Mudbound

Allison Janney – I, Tonya

Lesley Manville – Phantom Thread

Laurie Metcalf – Lady Bird

Octavia Spencer – The Shape of Water

Predictions:

Jordan – Winner: Lesley Manville (Phantom Thread)  Dark Horse: Laurie Metcalf (Lady Bird)

Eddie – Winner: Alison Janney (I, Tonya)   Dark Horse: Laurie Metcalf (Lady Bird)

Best Adapted Screenplay

Mudbound’s reputation could see it win this category

Call Me by Your Name – James Ivory

The Disaster Artist – Scott Neustadter & Michael H. Weber

Logan – Scott Frank & James Mangold and Michael Green

Molly’s Game – Aaron Sorkin

Mudbound – Virgil Williams and Dee Rees

Predictions:

Jordan – Winner: The Disaster Artist (Scott Neustadter & Michael H. Weber)    Dark Horse: James Ivory (Call Me By Your Name)

Eddie – Winner: James Ivory (Call Me By Your Name)   Dark Horse: Virgil Williams and Dee Ress (Mudbound)

Best Original Screenplay

Get Out film 2017 Jordan Peele

The Academy will look to give Get Out an award on the night, can it beat out Lady Bird?

The Big Sick – Emily V. Gordon & Kumail Nanjiani

Get Out – Jordan Peele

Lady Bird – Greta Gerwig

The Shape of Water – Guillermo del Toro & Vanessa Taylor

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri – Martin McDonagh

Predictions:

Jordan – Winner: The Shape of Water  (Guillermo del Toro & Vanessa Taylor)  Dark Horse: Jordan Peele (Get Out)

Eddie – Winner: Greta Gerwig (Lady Bird)   Dark Horse: Jordan Peele (Get Out)

Best Animated Film

Coco is a new Pixar masterpiece and a sure-fire winner on the night of the Oscars

The Boss Baby

The Breadwinner

Coco

Ferdinand

Loving Vincent

Predictions:

Jordan – Winner: Coco   Dark Horse: Loving Vincent

Eddie – Winner: Coco   Dark Horse: Loving Vincent

Other Categories

Best Cinematography

Blade Runner 2049 – Roger Deakins

Darkest Hour – Bruno Delbonnel

Dunkirk – Hoyte van Hoytema

Mudbound – Rachel Morrison

The Shape of Water – Dan Laustsen

Predictions:

Jordan – Winner: Dunkirk (Hoyte van Hoytema)   Dark Horse: Roger Deakins (Blade Runner)

Eddie – Winner: Roger Deakins (Blade Runner 2049)   Dark Horse: Dan Laustsen (The Shape of Water)

 

Best Documentary

Abacus: Small Enough to Jail

Faces Places

Icarus

Last Men in Aleppo

Strong Island

Predictions:

Jordan – Winner: Last Men in Aleppo   Dark Horse: Strong Island

Eddie – Winner: Last Men in Aleppo   Dark Horse: Icarus

Best Foreign Language Film

A Fantastic Woman

The Insult

Loveless

On Body and Soul

The Square

Predictions:

Jordan – Winner: The Square  Dark Horse: Loveless

Eddie – Winner: The Square   Dark Horse: A Fantastic Woman

Best Editing

Baby Driver

Dunkirk

I, Tonya

The Shape of Water

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Predictions:

Jordan – Winner: Dunkirk   Dark Horse: The Shape of Water

Eddie – Winner: Dunkirk   Dark Horse: Baby Driver

Best Sound Editing

Baby Driver

Blade Runner 2049

Dunkirk

The Shape of Water

Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Predictions:

Jordan – Winner: Dunkirk   Dark Horse: Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Eddie – Winner: Dunkirk   Dark Horse: Blade Runner 2049

Best Sound Mixing

Baby Driver

Blade Runner 2049

Dunkirk

The Shape of Water

Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Predictions:

Jordan – Winner: Dunkirk   Dark Horse: Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Eddie – Winner: Dunkirk   Dark Horse: Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Best Production Design

Beauty and the Beast

Blade Runner 2049

Darkest Hour

Dunkirk

The Shape of Water

Predictions:

Jordan – Winner: The Shape of Water   Dark Horse: Dunkirk

Eddie – Winner: The Shape of Water   Dark Horse: Blade Runner 2049

Best Original Score

Dunkirk – Hans Zimmer

Phantom Thread – Jonny Greenwood

The Shape of Water – Alexandre Desplat

Star Wars: The Last Jedi – John Williams

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri – Carter Burwell

Predictions:

Jordan – Winner: (Phantom Thread Jonny Greenwood)  Dark Horse: Alexandre Desplat (The Shape of Water)

Eddie – Winner: Alexandre Desplat (The Shape of Water)   Dark Horse: Hans Zimmer (Dunkirk)

Best Original Song

Mighty River – “Mudbound” Mary J. Blige

Mystery of Love – “Call Me by Your Name” Sufjan Stevens

Remember Me – “Coco”

Stand Up for Something – “Marshall” Diane Warren, Common

“This Is Me” – The Greatest Showman” Benj Pasek, Justin Paul

Predictions:

Jordan – Winner: Remember Me (Coco)  Dark Horse: Mystery of Love (Call Me by Your Name)

Eddie – Winner: This Is Me (The Greatest Showman)  Dark Horse: Mystery of Love (Call Me by Your Name)

Best Make-up and Hair

Darkest Hour

Victoria and Abdul

Wonder

Predictions:

Jordan – Winner: The Darkest Hour   Dark Horse: Victoria and Abdul

Eddie – Winner: Darkest Hour   Dark Horse: Wonder

Best Costume Design

Beauty and the Beast

Darkest Hour

Phantom Thread

The Shape of Water

Victoria and Abdul

Predictions:

Jordan – Winner: Phantom Thread   Dark Horse: Darkest Hour

Eddie – Winner: Phantom Thread   Dark Horse: The Shape of Water

Best Visual Effects

Blade Runner 2049

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2

Kong: Skull Island

Star Wars: The Last Jedi

War for the Planet of the Apes

Predictions:

Jordan – Winner: Star Wars: The last Jedi   Dark Horse: Kong: Skull Island

Eddie – Winner: War for the Planet of the Apes   Dark Horse: Blade Runner 2049

Best Animated Short Film

Dear Basketball

Garden Party

Lou

Negative Space

Revolting Rhymes

Predictions:

Jordan – Winner: Negative Space   Dark Horse: Lou

Eddie – Winner: Dear Basketball   Dark Horse: Negative Space

Best Documentary Short Subject

Edith+Eddie

Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405

Heroin(e)

Knife Skills

Traffic Stop

Predictions:

Jordan – Winner: Heroin(e)   Dark Horse: Knife Skills

Eddie – Winner: Edith+Eddie   Dark Horse: Knife Skills

Best Live Action Short

DeKalb Elementary

The Eleven O’Clock

My Nephew Emmett

The Silent Child

Watu Wote/All of Us

Predictions:

Jordan – Winner: Watu Wote/All of Us   Dark Horse: The Eleven O’Clock

Eddie – Winner: The Eleven O’Clock   Dark Horse: The Silent Child

Wins Tally

Who do you think will sweep the Oscars this year? Is there a film that should/shouldn’t be here? We’d love to hear from you so leave us a comment below!

4 responses to “The Movie Guys – 2018 Oscars Overview & Final Predictions

  1. Spot on with Wind River. An unfortunate casualty of the Weinstein scandal, Taylor Sheridan should probably be nominated for Best Original Screenplay at the least. Very Strong acting performances at the head of film, great original score, strong cinematography. Absolutely one of the best films of the year, sad to see it on the sidelines.

    • Very valid point Nicolas, I think the Weinstein saga really killed any chances it had. I was surprised the score was ignored, can’t wait for Sheridan’s new TV show Yellowstone, looks ace.
      E

  2. Wind River deserved something.

    What I don’t want though is Dunkirk winning. I really thought that movie would be phenomenal but to me it was a ‘meh’ movie. I kind of feel like I wasted my time watching that movie.

    But hey, Oscars aren’t everything and there is bound to be snubs and disappointments here

    • Yeh always is good times and bad times at the Oscars mate, my hope is that Shape of Water doesn’t win to many awards, its a very overrated film, it looks likely that there will be a neat spread though between Dunkirk, Billboards and Shape.
      E

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